Leader-Post: Less intense winter expected, weather guru predicts



Treacherous roads meant vehicles in the ditches on
Saskatchewan highways on Monday.

Photograph by: Bryan Schlosser, Regina Leader-Post


Regina had its first snowfall of the season on Sunday, but the winter is expected to be less intense than last year, according to Environment Canada.


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A history and more information on La Niña weather system, Environment Canada




Additional comments from David Phillips, senior climatologist for Environment Canada

"There's a hint that (winter) won't go on as long as it did last year. Last year that was the character of the winter. It was a tough winter when it lasted, but it also went on too long.

"We went right on through February and through March and April was cooler than normal. May was cooler than normal and my gosh, even June was. (I'm) not suggesting it was winter like in May, June, but clearly there were moments there where you were waiting for it to warm up and because of the persistent La Niña last year, that's why it continued on," said Phillips.

"This year, we think it will be dead in th water by late winter, say February or maybe early March and we'll go into something that is less La Niña-like and therefore, things will warm up."

Phillips said that "snow begets snow." In other words, he said when the temperatures drop and the snow begins to fall, it becomes even harder for temperatures to rise.

"If you melt that snow, it takes heat from the air, so therefore the temperatures don't stay. They can't bounce way back up," said Phillips. "But you know, (Saskatchewan has) had a pretty good roll. You've had a fall that's been absolutely wonderful."

But Phillips said predicting the amount of precipitation is always more difficult.

"When it comes to precipitation, (it's) always a tougher call. I never boast if we get precipitation right," said Phillips, adding that usually Environment Canada is correct with temperature levels.

"My sense is that the heavier amounts of snow will occur in January and later, but again, no guarantee," he said. "There tends to be a lot of uncertainty."

Phillips said the first snowfall wasn't until Nov. 29 in 1918. On the other hand, he said the first snowfall in 1922 was on Sept. 22.

"There's no guarantees with this. You can have a La Niña winter. It (shouldn't) necessarily strike fear in your heart (that) it'll be the winter in hell," said Phillips. "There is no guarantee, but the dice are loaded to perhaps give you a greater incidence, a greater frequency, greater probability, a risk of having a colder than normal winter."